Category Archives: Random Thoughts

Random Thoughts

Let’s Not Get All Defensive Now

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In remembering these past 2 weeks, and watching the first 6 minutes of the first quarter in the Phoenix game, I’m reminded that, even though the Oklahoma City Thunder are athletically superior to most teams, their defense will be the tell-tale sign whether they reach glorious heights this postseason. A lot of the defensive breakdowns they had last season, are back again this season. The cast of characters is the same, so the fact that improvements have not been made, is really worrisome for their future postseason success.

 Two seasons ago, when the Thunder had Ron Adams as an assistant coach, they were near the top of the league in defensive efficiency and used that to propel them to the postseason for the first team since moving to Oklahoma City. Since Adam’s departure after that postseason, there has been a lack of defensive focus that is being masked and hidden by the team’s improved offensive efficiency. When the team struggles offensively, this lack of defensive focus can have adverse effects on the Thunder’s ability to win, especially in the playoffs.

The thing about defensive breakdowns is that they are usually a combination of several defensive breakdowns in one series. It’s not just one play in a possession that causes this. It’s usually a chain reaction of defensive lapses. The first thing the Thunder struggle with is their pick-n-roll defense. The Thunder guards, Russell Westbrook, in particular, have a tendency to go over the pick, instead of fighting through it to stay in front of their man. The problem with this is if the big man doesn’t hedge over a bit, the opposing guard just blows right by them and past their primary defender.

It’s a play like this where you have to know your opponent’s tendencies. If the scenario is guarding a slower guard (i.e. Jason Kidd or Mike Conley), then the Thunder guard can go over the screen as there is no threat of a blow-by. The only threat is if the guard is a competent 3-point shooter. The big man in this situation has to know who he is guarding and decide whether to hedge or stay with his man. In this case, if we are talking about Dirk Nowitzki or Zach Randolph, then it would probably be best for the defending big man to stay on his man.

If the situation is changed to a speedier guard, such as Ty Lawson or Tony Parker, then the big will have to hedge to allow the defending guard a chance to stay in front of his man. The worst thing that can happen in this situation is a switch, where the big is guarding a speedy guard, and the defending guard is on the offensive big. This opens up a ton of options for the offense and puts a lot of pressure on the defense.

The primary goal of the pick-n-roll is to allow movement towards the rim. But, against the Thunder, this is also achieved through dribble penetration. When he was drafted out of UCLA, Russell Westbrook was advertised as a defensive guard, having just won Pac-10 defensive player of the year. But what worked in college (gambling on steals, using other-worldly athleticism to pressure opponents) hasn’t worked quite as well in the NBA where the world’s best basketball players play. A lot of what makes defense work is where you are positioned. If you are not in the correct defensive position, an NBA player will blow by you in a heartbeat.

Where Thabo Sefolosha is more of a technical defender, using his length to make the opposition adjust their play, Westbrook is more an instinctual defender, always trying to go after the steal. But don’t mistake steals for good defense. When you constantly gamble for steals, you put pressure on the rest of the defense to play 4 on 5 defensively. Eventually, the open man will be located, and its usually on the 3-point line or for an easy bucket.

This, then leads to the next defensive issue for the Thunder, which is closing out shooters. After the acquisition of Kendrick Perkins and the insertion of Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup last season, the Thunder went from squishy soft interior presence to hardcore interior presence. One would surmise, with that kind of support in the interior (to also include Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed), the Thunder wings would trust their bigs more and not sink in every time the ball gets into the paint. Instead, it’s become commonplace for the entire defense to sag into the paint when a breach occurs which leads to wide open three point shots. Teams like San Antonio and Dallas feast on this and always give the Thunder problems.

Once the defense has been breached and the ball is in the paint, then the advantage goes to the offense. When big men have to move around, it takes them out of their comfort zone. Our big men like to battle until the shot goes up and then box out for a rebound. But if ball is penetrated into the paint, then the bigs have to move around to defend the paint. Even with Ibaka leading the league in blocked shots, this still puts the defense at a disadvantage. If Ibaka leaves his man and whiffs on a blocked shot attempt, then his man is in position for the offensive rebound and put back. Much like steals, blocked shot don’t automatically equate to good defense. But if you are going to have Ibaka play free safety in the paint, then KD needs to slide down on defense and help out on the boards. While it may seem like this has been happening, as evidenced by Durant averaging a career high 7.9 rebounds per game, it also needs to be taken into account that the Thunder have played a lot more small ball with Durant at the 4 this season.

The most important issue with the Thunder’s lack of defensive intensity is their will. A lot of their deficiencies can be overcome by focusing more on the defensive end and working smarter. Ron Adams may have been a great defensive strategist. But even more important was that he held the players accountable for their actions on the defensive end. Once he left, there was a general sense of apathy concerning smart defensive basketball. The Thunder were content with just being good enough defensively and letting their athleticism dictate their defensive schemes. This is especially evident in the 4th quarter of close games. When the Thunder are focused, they can play great defensively and use that close out games.

It’s not all bad though. Due to their athleticism, length, and youth, the Thunder are one of the better teams at defending the fast break. They are constantly stifling transition opportunities for the opposition and cause a good number of turnovers defending the fast break. As we saw in the 4 game stretch from March 25th thru April 1st, where the Thunder played the Heat, Trailblazers, Lakers, and Bulls, the Thunder can put together a string of great defensive games. The question becomes, will that translate to the playoffs?

Top NBA Teams and Senior-itis

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Ahh, yes. April. That time of year where the memories of Spring Break start to fade, and the doldrums of the final quarter of school starts to set in. This is when high school seniors start to really feel the effects of senior-itis. It’s this same disease that is beginning to affect some of the better teams in the NBA. For those teams that have already sewn up spots to the NBA’s Big Dance, this affliction is making them act like 8 years olds on a road trip. “Are we there yet?”

When it comes to this time of years, teams are in one of 4 modes. They are either completely out of the playoff hunt, fighting (realistically) for a playoff spot, fighting to move up in the playoff standings, or fighting off boredom from having clinched a playoff spot so early in the 2nd half of the season.  Of the 30 teams in the NBA:

  • 11 are completely out of the playoffs: Charlotte, Washington, New Orleans, TTFKATSK (the team formerly known as the Sacramento  Kings), Cleveland, Toronto, Golden State, New Jersey, Detroit, Minnesota, and Portland.
  • 7 are realistically fighting for playoff spots: Utah, Phoenix, Milwaukee(all currently out), Philadelphia, New York, Denver,  and Houston (all currently in).
  • 8 are securely in the playoffs and jockeying for positioning: Dallas, Memphis, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Orlando, Atlanta, Boston, and Indiana.
  • 4 teams are entrenched in the playoffs and fighting for the top two spots in their respective conferences: Chicago and Miami (East) and Oklahoma City and San Antonio (West).

Of the 4 teams at the top,Chicago is trying to battle through injuries and maintain the best record in the league.San Antonio is blitzing anyone in their way and trying to take the top spot in the West. And apparently, OKC and Miami (to the enjoyment of all the fans not in Chicago or San Antonio) are ready to meet in the Finals, and are acting like it’s a forgone conclusion. But, honestly, for these four teams, is there anything to worry about besides injuries at this point in the season?

These four teams are treading water at this point in the season. Chicago is 4-3 since April started. Miami and OKC are both 5-4. And San Antonio, riding the hot hand, is 6-2. Are these records indicative of any shortcomings that decided to pop up in the final month of the season?

In Chicago’s losses this month, it is quite apparent that they need Derrick Rose to be completely healthy for their playoff run. But, perhaps, more importantly, the health of Rip Hamilton is of great importance to the offense. While Rose is the end all, be all of the offense, Hamilton provides a great release valve if the defense collapses too much on Rose. Getting those two healthy at this point of the season is the best thing that could have happened to the team. It’s almost like they got a trade deadline acquisition in Hamilton, who is just now starting to pay dividends on the team. The greatest positive to come out of the injury plagued seasons of Rose and Hamilton, is that the bench players have had to contribute and have done so in above average fashion.

In Miami’s losses this month, a lot of the problems that surfaced last season are starting to resurface this season. It’s the Big 3 and no one else on that team. The Big 3 moniker has taken a bit of a hit this season with injuries to Dwayne Wade, but the production from the role players that was so evident in the beginning of the season, has begun to decline to the detriment of the team. The size issue that was a problem last season is still a problem for the Heat. They got Ronny Turiaf after the trading deadline, and while it is a slight improvement over Joel Anthony, the move didn’t really register too much on the Richter scale. The big man rotation of Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Anthony, and Turiaf does give the Heat a bit more flexibility as compared to the big man rotation last season (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, Bosh, Anthony, and an injury-recovering Haslem). The point guard position has been slumping for the last month and a half. Mario Chalmers has only been shooting 30% from 3-point territory since March 1st, after shooting about 48% from there in the first 2 1/2 months of the season. Norris Cole has hit the rookie wall and is not producing like he was in the beginning of the season, even being relegated to the bench in favor of James Jones, who is just now starting to find his shooting stroke. But, in the end, this team still has Lebron James and Dwayne Wade, and when those two are clicking, this team is still very difficult to defeat.

The Spurs have begun to streak after finally getting all their pieces back from injury. Its no coincidence that their 11 game win streak coincided with Manu Ginobili finally getting his rhythm back after being in and out of the lineup with a myriad of injuries for most of the season. The young players (Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, Danny Green, and James Anderson) all know their roles and play them to a tee. This team is a well-oiled machine that is just now starting to hit its stride. The team still relies heavily on its trio of veterans, but Coach Popovich has made sure to limit their minutes in the regular season. The addition of veterans Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw will help during their post-season run. This, in my opinion, is probably the most dangerous team heading in the playoffs.

The Thunder’s last 10 games have exhibited the same errors that have been plaguing them the entire season. They are 6-4 in those games, but those errors become very evident in the losses. Stagnant offense always hinders this team in the beginning of games. The team even has a punt play to start nearly every game: giving the ball to Kendrick Perkins in the low post. It very rarely ends in points for the Thunder. In their 4 losses in this 10 game run, the Thunder score an average of 22.3 points in the first quarter. In the 6 wins, that number jumps up to 27. That’s nearly a 5 point difference, which, in an NBA quarter, is a huge difference. Another stat that hinders the team in their losses is the number of turnovers. In that same 10 game span, they are averaging 16.5 turnovers per game in their losses, and 14 per game in their wins. That difference of 2.5 turnovers can, hypothetically, be equated to an extra 7 points for the other team. Which, again, in the NBA, is a game-changing amount.  Defensively, the team still has trouble with the pick and roll and guard penetration.

The good news for all these teams is that there is nothing new that can be labeled a negative. The deficiencies and errors that they have been exhibiting all season, are the same things that are afflicting them now. Even with all these issues, these teams are still the top 4 teams in the league and the leading contenders to win the championship. Are there darkhorses on the fringes that could slip in? Of course. The Los Angeles Lakers are starting to show some diversity in their offense with Andrew Bynum finally taking charge in the absence of Kobe Bryant. The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the league, with 2 All-star caliber post players (Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph) and an All-star caliber wing (Rudy Gay). And the Boston Celtics will give it all they got for what appears to be their swan song together.

The thing about senior-itis is that, eventually, everyone graduates and moves on to the next level. In that next level is where your skills and abilities come out in full force. Some end up in college, some in a job, and some at home on the couch. In this crazy season, anything can happen. But if the playoffs play out anything like the regular season, then these 4 teams should be the cream that rises to the top.

Interview With A Beard

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Recently, I had the opportunity to sit down and interview the great James Harden’s Beard. Needless to say, it was a life changing event. After the interview, everything has became so much more clearer to me. Colors are brighter. Sounds are crisper. Smells are more odorous. And I’ve added 6 inches to my vertical. So without further ado, I bid you the interview.

(Pre-interview)

Me: Let me start by saying it is a pleasure and an honor to be in your presence. This interview could be a career changer for me.

Beard: This won’t just be a career changer, my friend. It will be life-altering. Many people have dropped everything they were doing, and have decided to follow me. I like to call them my Beard-sciples. And there are definitely more than 12.

Me: Wow, so would you say you have a cult following?

Beard: It’s not a following. It’s a way of life. Getting your Beard on allows to see things in a way that you’ve never seen them before. My Beard-sciples break their lives up into 2 parts: BB and AB. Before Beard and After Beard. There is no in-between.

Me: Interesting. Well, let’s go ahead and get this started.

(Interview)

Me: Hello, I’m Alex Roig of www.nowthatsthunderbasketball.wordpress.com and www.HoopsTalkNation.com , and I have the distinct honor of interviewing one of the greatest entities of our time. The Dalai Lama once said “When I seek peace, I always look for my inner Beard.” The President once sent the Beard to Russia to negotiate the release of 2 captured American reporters. Needless to say, the Cold War ended when he was done with his trip. 

First off, welcome and thank you for this opportunity. As revered and well-known as you are, you’re also a bit of a mystery. You’re known by many names, but what do you like to be called?

Beard: Well, my creator named me Beardfjelfioeualkjfdlskjfoisdjlfksdjsnuffalufagousgarciaortizrodriguezmikeandmikeinthemorning. But the “fjelfioeualkjfdlskjfoisdjlfksdjsnuffalufagousgarciaortizrodriguezmikeandmikeinthemorning” is silent. In fact, I joke with Serge (Ibaka) all the time that my name is actually longer than his real name and I have no spaces. The first time I said it, he got mad and gave me this look.

 

Feeling threatened, I put him in the cobra clutch and subdued him. We have since become great friends and, as Mike Dunleavy can attest, I have passed the secrets of the cobra clutch on to him. 

I’m also known as James Harden’s Beard, The Beard, Beard, Bearded One, Jeff Bearden, The Great JHB, The Most Interesting Beard in the World, Brian Wilson’s Nemesis, Brett Keisel’s Darker Brother, Rick Ross’s Homey, and Bob. But, I prefer to go just by Beard.

Me: Interesting. So, one of your aliases is James Harden’s Beard. Describe your relationship with Mr. Harden.

Beard: Well, it’s a symbiotic relationship. Animals in the wild will sometimes form alliances with other different types of animals that benefit both parties. That’s how our relationship works. He’s my vehicle and my protection. He carries me and I carry the message. In return, I give him powers beyond belief. As I grow bigger, his skills become more diverse and more immense. He’s gone from 2nd Team All-Rookie, to possible 6th Man of the Year this season, to probable future All Star selection. Can you imagine when I reach the floor?

Me: How did you guys come together?

Beard: I’ve always had James. Many people think I grew out of him. It is quite the opposite in fact. I allowed James to manifest himself and become a man. He didn’t always have the beard, you know.

When he was mature enough to handle the responsibility, I appeared. And I’ve been growing ever since.

Me: It seems like a lot of this is based on James’s maturity. If he ever digresses, will you move onto another subject?

Beard: It all depends. There’s a judgment period after what we call, ‘the great betrayal.’ It usually involves the person wanting to cut us off. If that happens, we then judge the person and see if we want to stay with that subject or not. It all depends on what James does if he ever commits that betrayal. We give our subjects free will to do as they please.

Me: How many of you are there?

Beard: That question is so subjective. How many of you are there out there? (Me: Just one) But there are over 6 billion people out there in the world. It’s all relative. There’s only one James Harden’s Beard. But there are plenty of beards out there.

Me: What are your feelings towards people making shirts based on your likeness and people wearing fake beards trying to imitate you?

Beard: They say imitation is greatest form of flattery. I don’t fault or look down on those people. Unlike Charles Barkley, I want to be a role model.  There’s a message I’m trying to spread and silence will get you nowhere. The more free advertisement I get, the better.

Me: Is there anyone in the NBA community that you have a kinship with?

Beard: Well, me and Baron Davis’s Beard are tight. Baron even touched me one time. And it may surprise you, but me and Chris Kaman’s Beard work out often. That crazy wannabe German.

Me: Okay, word association time: Razors

Beard : Weapons of mass destruction

Me: James Harden’s mother

Beard: Working on her to like me

Me: Brian Wilson’s Beard

 

Beard: My nemesis

Me: OKC

Beard: My home

Me: Restricted free agency / possible extension

Beard: Not thinking about that right now

Me: Brushes and picks

Beard: My tools

Me: Person with a surprisingly great beard

Beard: Rumble the bison

Me: One last question: Who pulls more women, you or James?

Beard: A beard never kisses and tells.

Me: Thank you sir.

Beard: The pleasure was all mine.

A View From the Other Side

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When I first started writing this piece, I didn’t know how to approach it or where to take it. I grew up a military brat, and when we lived overseas, our experience can be best described as sheltered due to living “behind the gates.” It’s this mindset, which I believe, has kept me from experiencing other teams and other team cultures. I honestly don’t feel the need to explore other teams as I have everything I need here in Oklahoma City. A great, young team, a fervent fan base, an excellent front office, and an ownership group, that for all intents and purposes, appears ready to break the bank in order to keep their young core together.

I know a lot about the Thunder. I know the players, their stats, their comforts, their weaknesses, etc. But as a blogger, I’ve learned to look at other things not related to players and stats. The recent lockout opened up a Pandora’s Box of knowledge, not entirely related to the game of basketball, but instead to the business of basketball. While I can’t say that I’ve become an expert on such things, I have begun to put the pieces together and observe things such as fan attendance, TV money, corporate sponsorships, the dynamic between the community and the team, and future projections.

Recently, I had the opportunity to attend a game with two of my friends in Indianapolis, where the Pacers were playing the Washington Wizards. We got great seats from Pacers superfan, El Pacero, and were ready to became Pacers fans for a day. We were told to round up some Pacers gear before the game. We were staying in downtown Indy, 4 blocks from the arena. I figured, “how hard would it be to find some Pacers gear this close to the arena?” So I headed to the downtown mall and started looking around. Surely there would be some Pacers gear in an athletic store. Asked around and nothing. Next, I went to the Indianapolis Colts store and asked an employee if there were any places to get some Pacers gear in the mall. The employee thumbed his nose at me and said, “There’s no place in the mall to get Pacers’ gear since their store closed down last year.” One of my friends actually trekked it over to the Pacers store in Bankers Life Fieldhouse and got the gear we needed.

We finally got to the arena and were cheering for the team from Area 55, the cheer section authored by Roy Hibbert, where only the wildest and craziest fans sit. We learned the chants (“Whoomp, there it is” every time a Pacers free throw fell through), did the arm signals (X sign for David West), both hands opened and in the air for Hibbert (to signify his jersey number 55)), and had a great time in that first quarter.

But we also noticed something else. More than 50% of the arena was empty.  Now, mind you, I could have stood up and cheered with the Area 55 crazies for the entire game. But my friends, who are about 15 years my senior, have a life’s worth of old football and running injuries on their bodies and would have preferred to sit. So, with the arena so empty, we decided to make our way down to see if we could score some better seats. After an unfortunate alcohol accident (one the guys I was with fell and spilled his beer), we were sitting in the end seats on the lower bowl lamenting the loss of a full cup of golden brew, laughing our butts off, and enjoying the game.

After halftime, we tried our luck at heading to the sideline lower bowl seats. Everywhere we looked in the lower bowl, the upper half of the sections were completely empty. We slipped past the ushers and enjoyed the rest of the game 15 rows from the floor. And it turned out to be a pretty good game. It was a 2-point game with 8 seconds left. While the arena got a little loud, everyone in the arena was basically glued to their seats.

The experience was completely surreal to me. Not the game itself, but the arena experience was, surprisingly, a bit depressing. If the Thunder were ever involved in a 2 point game in the 4th quarter at the Chesapeake Arena, that place would be rocking and everyone would be on their feet making noise. It wouldn’t matter who the opponent was. That’s how it’s always been in Oklahoma City. Even when the Hornets were in town, we were known as Loud City. While that may have been a marketing ploy concocted by the Hornets’ arena staff, it worked for us and we ate it up. That slogan became us.

This is where I revert back to my military upbringing. I’ve “grown up” under the veil of OKC basketball. All I’ve ever known is to be loud and cheer like hell for my team. If we are up by 20, scream because we are winning. If we are down by 20, scream even louder, because that may provide the spark to uplift the team. So when the Pacers were up by two with 8 seconds left, and no one was on their feet, I didn’t know what to think.

So, I asked around town why the 2-14 football team (the Colts) is so wildly supported, while the basketball team that is playoff-bound is left to fend for itself. The most popular response was that the team hasn’t been good in a while. While that may be true, the Pacers gave the Bulls a helluva first round matchup last season in the playoffs and are currently 10 games over .500. The second most popular answer was that the city still hasn’t gotten over the Brawl and the Stephen Jackson night club shooting incident. That completely floored me because it has been over 7 years since the Brawl and 5 years since Captain Jack donned a Pacers uniform.

The fragile relationship between Indianapolis and the Pacers surprises me because Indiana is known for its love of hoops. No state is associated with the grassroots aspect of basketball like Indiana. Between the Hoosiers movie, French Lick being Larry Bird’s hometown, and the constant replays of the Bob Knight-led Hoosiers team, the last place I thought would be a struggling in terms of basketball fandom would be Indianapolis. But, apparently, such is the thin line between fanaticism and empathy.

And let me be clear. The piece is not, in any way, shape, or form, indicative of what may be the true situation in Indianapolis. I went to one game, in which they played against one of the worst teams in the league. Everybody has an off-day, even fan bases. The truth may be so different from my little one game sample, that I may have a couple Indianapolis fans mad at me for writing this blog. But in comparing this to the only thing I know (OKC), I still find it a bit puzzling that the arena was only half way full for a strong playoff team.

I hope I’m wrong concerning what I saw in Indianapolis. Maybe it was an aberration. A statistical anomoly in the world of numbers. I just saw the New York Knicks face the Pacers in the Fieldhouse and the place was packed. Good for you Indy. You have a good, up-and-coming team. I hope the Fieldhouse is full to the brim when the Thunder play the Pacers in Indy on Friday. I hope Area 55 is raising hell for the entire game and pumping that crowd up. I hope El Pacero dons the mask and drums the crowd into a frenzy. I hope it’s a close game. Annnnd, I hope the Thunder come out of there victorious.

The Key: Game Planning against James Harden

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The competition for the Thunder’s third banana is in full swing between James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Harden provides on the offensive end what Ibaka provides on the defensive end. What I have begun to notice, though, is that teams, especially playoff teams, are starting to aggressively scout James Harden and his tendencies. Serge Ibaka is still a wild card, in that his untapped potential lends an air mystery surrounding how to guard him. The way Ibaka played at the beginning of the season is completely different from the way he is playing now. Eventually, Serge’s evolution as a player will plateau and teams will have a checklist on how to guard Ibaka. But for right now, the man receiving the opposing team’s attention on the defensive end is the Bearded One.

When teams play the Oklahoma City Thunder, they have an idea of how to counter Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. They either have a physical defender for Durant or they hope that he has an off-night in the FG department. Regarding Westbrook, they either play him with a bigger player (a la Lebron James or Kobe Bryant), force him into the heart of the defense, or hope he has one of those high turnover, low FG percentage nights. Either way, it’s a classic case of pick your poison. But with so much of the offense coming from those two players alone, many teams are content with letting them get their numbers, and instead focusing their defensive attention on the rest of the players, especially James Harden.

Great games by Durant and Westbrook usually net around 55 – 65 points. If you maintain Harden and shut down his attack with the 2nd unit, you can probably beat the Thunder with 95 points. Using that wisdom, teams are starting to focus a lot of their defensive attention on Harden. When the second unit is in, the Thunder usually runs the same 3 or 4 sets. But their favorite, by far, is the Nick Collison/James Harden pick and roll on the 3-point wing. One of 4 things happens on this play:

  1. Nick completely screens the defenders and Harden backs up for an uncontested 3-pointer.
  2. Nick screens the defender just enough for Harden to split the double team and use his patented Euro-step to get into the lane.
  3. The two defenders pays so much attention to Harden that it leaves Collison either open for a midrange jumper or a roll to the basket
  4. The defenders switch creating a mismatch that either Harden or Collison can exploit.

This James Harden mix shows all the ways that the Harden/Collison pick and roll works:

 

With about a season and half worth of film on Harden and Collison, good teams are starting to do a couple things to stymie this effective offensive attack. First off, they are putting their hands up in the passing lanes. While Harden is an effective passer, he has a tendency to be predictable and, in essence, choreograph his no-look passes. The second thing that defenses are doing is closing up the lane between the two defenders in the pick and roll. This negates the ability for Harden to split the double team and get into the lane. This was very evident in the Heat game, when the 8 – 0 Heat run in the 4th quarter was spearheaded by two consecutive turnovers by Harden in this pick and roll scenario. Great defensive teams will choose Collison to beat them offensively, instead of Harden.

Harden has been the key to OKC’s offensive efficiency. Durant and Westbrook are going to get theirs. When you have the 2nd and 5th leading scorers in the league, they will find ways to put the ball through the basket. When Harden is allowed to be effective, he adds an entirely different dimension to the Thunder offense that makes the defense feel like the attack is coming in continuous waves. When he protects the ball and manages the second team, the team usually wins. In their 12 losses, Harden is averaging 3.5 turnovers per game. In the wins in which he has played, he’s averaging just under 2 turnovers per game (1.9).

The predictability of Harden’s offense has allowed teams to start making defensive game plans against Harden. While the increase in turnovers over the past 10 games (3.4, as compared to 2.0 in the first 39 games) can be attributed to an increase in usage and minutes, there’s no denying that an efficient Harden is the key to the Thunder advancement this season and beyond.

The Thunder and Derek Fisher

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Ask any great player who has retired having never won a championship what they would’ve done to get one. Anything short of selling their first born or their soul would probably be the collective answer. But, realistically, would they have traded their best friend on the team to get that final piece? Would they have signed that one questionable knucklehead if it meant getting that title? The answer, each and every time, will probably be yes. The window of opportunity to win a championship is so small, that when that opportunity knocks, it’s best not to hesitate. Can you imagine what Charles Barkley would have given to get a ring? What about Karl Malone? John Stockton? Patrick Ewing? 

Fans tend to think if their team has 2 young superstars, they will contend for the next decade. Ask Portland fans how that worked out for them. The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the best young cores in the league. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka are all under the age of 24 and are all primed to see action in future All Star games. But what would have happened if the point guard on the team that was recovering from ACL surgery were Russell Westbrook, instead of Eric Maynor? 

That injury to Maynor is what thrust rookie point guard Reggie Jackson into prime action for a title contending team. Before we get into what Jackson has done since he’s been pushed into the rotation as the main back-up point guard, let’s see what he was supposed to be. As the 24th pick in the draft, a player is not expected to be an instant contributor. If a team is picking that late, it usually means that they have a good record and made it into the playoffs. While they may be needing an impact player, they don’t expect to acquire one this late in the draft. Reggie Jackson was supposed to get his feet wet this year. He was expected to learn the speed and nuances of the game, develop a niche, and possibly spend some time in Tulsa with the Thunder’s D-League team. Instead, with the injury to Maynor, he was expected to manage a bench unit that was one of the best in the league. For those of you with any military experience, this is the equivalent of a private being put in charge a platoon. 

Jackson has played the way a rookie in his position would. Good plays sandwiched between mental errors. One of the hardest things to do as a rookie is to play the game while you are thinking. Young players tend to rely exclusively on instincts and athleticism. But if they start to think too much, it begins to muddle their athleticism. This is currently what is happening withJackson. He wanting to play like a traditional point guard, but his game is more geared towards being a combo guard. Teams are starting to trap him more and, in a way, make him think more. This leads to one of two things with Jackson: either a turnover or Jackson trying to neuter himself on the court, by giving the ball up to a teammate as quickly as possible. 

And don’t get me wrong; I’m not dogging the kid. He’s been put in a situation that he shouldn’t have been facing for at least another season. When Jackson does make a play, all the potential that Presti saw in him gets put on full display. The athleticism, the fearlessness, the comic-book like wingspan, the defensive potential. But he never has gotten a chance to ease into learning how to play in the league. Just imagine getting behind the wheel for the first time, and then getting your license the next day. You would eventually learn how to drive, but you may get into a couple of fender benders along the way. 

This is why the possible signing of newly released Derek Fisher is so important. What Fisher lacks in athleticism, he makes up for in experience and veteran savvy. The signing would not be a chemistry shaker, as Fisher has always been regarded as a great locker room guy. It’s a move that just makes sense. He would slide into the back-up point guard role when needed, and would be the experienced hand that would guide the team when necessary. It’s moves like this that win championships. You don’t just plug up holes in sinking ships. You do that in strong ships too. Good back-up point guard play is a necessity on this team. Fisher provides that. Make the move Presti. Go Thunder!

Growing Pains

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One of the most difficult things to do as a parent is letting your children make their own mistakes, and hoping that they learn from them. As a father of 3, I know this very well. And being that my oldest is still under 10 years of age, I know that I have a lot more stresses coming my way in watching them live and learn. The end result is usually great, but the journey can be angst-filled.

It’s very comparable to being a fan of a team. Just like with your own kids, you take ownership of that team. You buy the season tickets and the merchandise, all in hopes of providing nourishment (capital) to the development of that team. You turn any available television to the local broadcast, wherever you are at, in hopes that increasing the number of homes in which the game is viewed will increase the advertising revenue for the team. You hope that, even though you are only one of probably tens of thousands, your contributions will help in the team rise up to its full potential.

As you invest in the growth of the team, you also expect for the players on the team to perform. But just as you expect your kids to perform well in school and behave in all facets of life, you also know that they will commit mistakes. Why should it be any different when it comes to athletes on the playing field? Mind you, when I use this analogy, I’m only speaking about the athlete on the playing field. I’m not talking about their lives outside of the playing surface. And this analogy carries a little more weight when most of the players on the team are young.

Case in point, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are a peculiar case because they are so young, but have been through the postseason battles for the past 2 seasons. You really don’t see too many cases where a team goes from being possibly one of the worst in league history (starting off 3-29 in the 2008-09 season) to contending for the best record 3 seasons later, with basically the same nucleus. This isn’t a team that was built through free-agency. Instead, this has been a team that has been allowed to grow organically while shrewdly adding pieces to the core. We, as fans, have witnessed this progression and are emotionally attached to it.

As we’ve seen since the All Star break, the Thunder have been acting a little hard-headed. They are akin to a high school student, whom you know can pull off straight A’s, but you battle with constantly about their aloofness and lack of maturity. Lately, they’ve played unfocused basketball for 75% of the game, while choosing to turn up the cooker in the 4th quarter to mixed results. In the 8 games they’ve played since the All-Star break, they have been behind in the 2nd half in 7 of them, losing 3 in the process. While the Thunder have a penchant for making big plays in the 4th quarter, the law of averages dictates that, when they put themselves in this predicament, that they won’t win every one of those games. There are set backs to being too clutch.

What we saw two nights ago against the Houston Rockets was a bad day at school for one of the Thunder’s star pupils. Russell Westbrook’s meltdown in the final minutes of the 4th quarter sent Thunder Nation into a tizzy, even bringing up trade requests since it was 3 days before the deadline. Did his technical foul and turnovers cost the Thunder the game? Partially, yes. Could his post game interview antics rub people the wrong way? Yes. But look at it this way; it was a mistake (actually, it was a cascade of mistakes). The thing about Westbrook is that he usually learns from his mistakes pretty quickly. He is who he is: a cauldron of fire that sometimes blow its lid. The same energy that he uses to torch opponents can sometimes burn him if someone pushes the right buttons. And Goran Dragic was pushing all the right buttons that night. The good thing about all this is that it happened in March. I can guarantee you, because of these recent events, this will not take place in May.

Sometimes as a parent, you have to let your children learn on their own. Those bumps along the road are what forge the person that they become. One of the lines from the late rapper Guru stated, “Experience, the best teacher…”. As fans, we need to understand that young teams will make mistakes. The key is to learn from the mistakes and use that experience. It’s these experiences that will forge what the Thunder will do in the postseason this season, and what they will do in seasons to come.

Trading Deadline and the Thunder

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Business transactions are always about needs versus assets. And that’s what trades in professional sports are.  A GM will assess their team and see what is needed and what can be given up. Sam Presti, the GM for the Oklahoma City Thunder, has made his bread and butter in the previous 5 seasons by taking advantage of other teams’ needs for financial relief. It’s how he obtained Thabo Sefolosha, Eric Maynor, Kendrick Perkins, Daequan Cook, and the draft pick that became Serge Ibaka. He did this by meticulously managing his cap space and not making hasty free agent/trade decisions.

Now that the Thunder are done with the rebuilding process, and are currently in the championship building phase of their development, some of the things that Presti used to swing advantageous deals are no longer available. The Thunder are currently $900K over the salary cap, meaning that they can’t absorb contracts, and must instead match salaries up to 125%. As ironic as it sounds, a negative of being frugal and careful with your spending, is that the Thunder are not saddled with any bad contract, which can become very advantageous in their expiring years.

Needs

  • With the loss of Eric Maynor earlier in the season, the Thunder lost one of the best game managers (backup or starting) in the game. He was the ultimate yin to Russell Westbrook’s yang, and provided the Thunder with a stabilizing force at the point guard position whenever necessary. Now, in his place, is a rookie, Reggie Jackson, who has looked every bit the part of a rookie. His play, while improving, has been inconsistent, as he is still trying to find his comfort zone on this championship caliber team. Kind of a tall order for someone who wasn’t expected to be thrust into such an important position at this moment in his young career. Because of Jackson’s inconsistent play, a quality backup point guard has suddenly become a need for the Thunder.
  • The thing about a wing oriented team is that if the shots aren’t falling and the “box and 1” defense is working, it makes it nearly impossible to consistently score points. The Thunder are lucky to have such dynamic scorers like Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Westbrook. These players have made their careers by consistently hitting shots with hands in their faces. But in basketball, the closer you are to the basket, the more efficient and easier your scoring becomes. And the Thunder have never had a low post scoring threat. It’s one of those things that makes scoring in the playoffs a whole lot easier.

Realistic Assets

  1. Nazr Mohammed – $3.75 Million – Veteran big man that could fit in on a contender that needs size.
  2. Cole Aldrich – $2.29 Million – 2nd year big man that has shown improvement and could be a good rotational big, if not for the Thunder, than for another team.
  3. Thabo Sefolosha – $3.3 Million – Veteran wing who is still one of the better wing defenders in the league.
  4. Royal Ivey – $1.2 Million – Veteran guard who provides good energy off the bench.
  5. Charlotte’s 2013 2nd round pick (obtained in the Byron Mullens trade) – Charlotte probably isn’t going to get much better next season and that pick will probably be in the 30-35 range, where a good player can still be picked up.
  6. OKC’s 2012 1st round pick – Will probably be in the 25 – 30 range of the first round. Late in the first, but still useful for stashing an overseas pick or rebuilding.

Possible trade partners (based on need and cost of transaction):

Boston  – Keyon Dooling ($2.25 M) and Marquis Daniels ($854 K) for Nazr Mohammed. Boston is in desperate need for big men after the losses of Jeff Green, Jermaine O’Neal, and Chris Wilcox. Keyon would provide a veteran point guard that has played in the playoffs before. Daniels would more than likely be cut.

New Jersey – Sundiata Gaines ($854 K) for Charlottes 2013 2nd round pick – Gaines has quietly put up a good season as a backup point guard for the New Jersey Nets.

New York – Mike Bibby ($854 K) for OKC’s 2013 2nd round pick – With the emergence of Jeremy Lin and the return of Baron Davis from injury, Mike Bibby is no longer necessary in New York.

Cleveland – Ramon Sessions ($4.3 M) for Nazr Mohammed and Charlotte’s 2013 2nd round pick – Compared to other teams’ offers, this is probably a “No” for Cleveland, but it’s still worth a try.

Milwaukee – Andrew Bogut ($12 M) for Kendrick Perkins, Daequan Cook, and OKC’s 2012 1st round pick – Bogut is just as good defensively as Perkins, while providing a lot more offense, if necessary. The Bucks will probably want either Harden or Serge Ibaka, which would make this a deal breaker for the Thunder.

New Orleans – Greivis Vasquez ($1.11 M) for Lazar Hayward and Charlotte’s 2013 2nd round pick – New Orleans is in full rebuild mode and looking to acquire quality draft picks. A very high 2nd round pick would do just that. The question becomes how does New Orleans view Vasquez?

Charlotte – DJ Augustine ($3.2 M) for Nazr Mohammed and Lazar Hayward – I don’t understand Charlotte’s desire to trade Augustine, as Kemba Walker is still a rookie and is more undersized SG than starting PG at this point in his career. But, if they want to, we’ll participate if the cost is not too much.

Free Agent – Anthony Carter (formerly of the Toronto Raptors) was recently waived to give him the opportunity to sign with a contender. Using our Disabled Player Exception from the Maynor injury, which comes out to $758,340, we could sign Carter for the rest of the season.

And just for fun:

Orlando – Dwight Howard ($18.1 M) and Ish Smith ($762 K) for Kendrick Perkins, James Harden, Eric Maynor, Cole Aldrich, OKC’s 2012 1st round pick, and Charlotte’s 2013 2nd round pick. I don’t know if Orlando gets a better infusion of young talent and draft picks from any other team.

What does the team look like on Thursday at 3:01 PM?

I think we stay pat. Making reactionary moves is not Presti’s style. He knows we still have Maynor next season and Jackson will have gained an invaluble amount of experience in his rookie season. A smaller scale signing, like Anthony Carter will be possible, though.

The Negative Effects of Clutch

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CLUTCH. A word that can define careers in the NBA, especially if you are labeled a superstar. A word that can make you the most feared player on the court for the opponent, or the biggest liability for your team. It’s a term that has no gray area. Either you are clutch or you are not. When Lebron James passed the ball to Udonis Haslem for the game-winning shot against the Utah Jazz a week ago, we didn’t anticipate that Haslem would make that shot. Not that Haslem is a horrible player. He usually sinks those mid-range jumpers. But he’s not a superstar. The guy that passed him the ball is a superstar and it has been his modus operandi for the past 2 seasons to shrink in those high pressure situations during those waning seconds of close games. The words “not clutch” have been following James around for the past few seasons like the stench when you unknowingly step in dog poop. And yet, his team has succeeded to the point where they reached the NBA Finals last season, and are one of the top 3 teams in the league this season. But that loss in the Finals, which kept the Heat from starting their string of winning, “not 5, not 6, not 7…” titles, can be partially blamed on James’s lack of “clutchness”.

It’s easy to see how not being clutch can be a detrimental to team success. But can being too clutch also be a detriment? Now, mind you, I understand how oxymoronic that sounds. How can being able to perform in high pressure situations be a detriment to a team? If a team constantly performs when all the chips are on the table, then that team should be in pretty good shape. Case in point: the Oklahoma City Thunder and their last 5 games.

As Steven Tyler of Aerosmith would say, the Thunder are literally “living on the edge” in the last 5 games. Its one of those runs where the team could easily be 0 – 5, just like it could be 5 – 0. Instead, the Thunder find themselves at 4 – 1 since the All Star Break and building on their lead at the top of the Western Conference. Here’s a look at the key 2nd halves in each of those games and how the Core 4 (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka) performed:

Opponent Largest   Deficit/Quarter/Score at the time of deficit Durant’s 4th   qtr Stat Line Westbrook’s   4th qtr Stat Line Harden’s 4th   qtr Stat Line Ibaka’s 4th   qtr Stat Line
@ Philly (W) 8 / 4th   /66 – 74 10 pts / 3 rebs / 1 ast /1 stl 2 pts / 2   rebs /1 ast 7 pts / 3   rebs 2 pts / 2 rebs /1 blk /1 stl
@ Orlando   (W) 11 / 4th   / 72 – 83 18 pts / 5   rebs 4 pts / 2   asts 8 pts / 3   rebs / 2 asts Donuts
@ Atlanta   (L) 8 / 4th   /79 – 87 6 pts / 2   rebs 2 pts / 1   ast 3 pts / 2   rebs /1 ast 1 reb / 1 blk
Dallas (W) 7 / 3rd   / 45 – 52 6 pts /2   rebs 5 pts / 2   rebs 14 pts / 2   asts 2 pts / 2   rebs / 1 blk
Phoenix(W) 16 / 3rd   / 68 – 84 12 pts / 2 rebs / 1 asts / 2 stls 9 pts / 1   ast 8 pts / 1   reb / 1 ast 2 pts / 8   rebs /1 blk

 

While this style of basketball makes for great fun as a fan, especially if you are winning most of the time, it also paints a conflicted picture in the Thunder’s outlook for the postseason. Two trains of thoughts come into play when a team is winning in this fashion. The first is that the team is learning how to win close games and is showing the ability to come back from 2nd half deficits. The second is that, come playoff time, constantly falling behind in the first half to elite teams will be the coup de grace to this year’s championship aspirations. Which train of thought is correct?

The answer, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. As a young team, it’s necessary to build the fortitude to be able to come from behind and win. If you’ve never experienced having to recover from a sizeable deficit, then you may choke if the situation arises in the playoffs. But you also don’t want to make it a habit of constantly falling behind your opponents in the first half. It’s almost like the team goes into a mode where they say, “let’s keep the score somewhere around 10 entering the 4th quarter and we have a chance.” While it’s a luxury to have not one, but two great clutch players (Durant and Westbrook), there can come a time where the natural effect of statistics takes hold and they both have a bad second half. You just hope it isn’t in an elimination game in the playoffs

The Great Unknown:Growing as a Fanbase

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Let’s imagine a scenario. You go on a blind date with this girl (or guy, you make the scenario fit to your liking). When you finally meet her, you think, “Hey, she’s easy on the eyes.” The first date is exciting, but ultimately ends a little awkwardly. She has a youthful grace about her, but can be a little immature at times. Everything goes well enough, though, that you both agree to another date. You continue to date for that month, but you constantly think about what your ex is doing and how you guys had better chemistry. The dates are good; some end up great, some disappointing. But there’s enough of a spark to continue dating. 

The next month things get even better. You start to hang out more and there are less and less “weird” moments. She even reveals to you that she trained as a world class chef before taking on her current job. She invites you over for a couple dates at her house to try out her culinary skills, and needless to say, she has “skillz”. The girl can throw down in the kitchen, and you know the saying referencing a man’s heart and his stomach. All those thoughts about your ex start to fade away and become non-existent. 

In the 3rd month of dating, you feel like you are ready to make this an exclusive relationship. There are less dates and more time together. You start to synchronize your schedules to have more time together. You start to want to hang out with this girl. Then she gives you the surprise of your life and buys you a brand new sports car. You start to turn it down, but she insists that she has been saving up a lot of money and needs to spend it for “tax” purposes. The L-word even starts to get tossed around playfully.  

In the 4th month, you hit a little hiccup in the beginning of the month. You bicker back and forth about “young-relationship” things. You begin to wonder whether you are even going to continue the relationship. But alas, you work through it and hopefully come out stronger in the end. And, this is where you are currently at. 

For the past two months, she has surprised you with something big. You begin to wonder what she has in store for you this month. Then you realize how selfish that sounds. You have a great girl that has given of her heart in the short time you two have been together and now you are expecting something from her. You begin to see that you have been spoiled, and, just maybe, to the detriment of your ethics and expectations. You realize that you have devalued the past and the present with the expectations of the future. 

Now, before you become concerned and think that my sports blog has turned into a self help or relationship blog, please realize that I used this scenario as an analogy. Change the word girl to team (namely the Oklahoma City Thunder) and change the word month to season. There you have Oklahoma City’s relationship with the Thunder in our 4 short years together. And I mean it when I say that we have been completely and utterly spoiled.

 Oklahoma City’s situation has been so rare and unique that it is really difficult to find something comparable. First off, OKC had a tryout, of sorts, with the two seasons the Hornets played at the Ford Center after Hurricane Katrina. We proved that OKC was a viable market and took advantage of our surprising opportunity. This is back when we weren’t spoiled. This is back when we were a hungry market yearning for attention and respectability. 

After a year hiatus from the NBA, we took full advantage when the Thunder came rumbling to town, selling out our season tickets in record time, and showing up in droves to the games. Then we realized we had a crappy team. Young, but still crappy, nonetheless. We longed for the days of the ever-improving Hornets who were quickly becoming the darlings of the Western Conference. But we stuck with it and started seeing results in the 2nd half of the season. At this point, we were still building a relationship with our new team. 

That improvement from the 2nd half of the previous season continued into the 2nd season, where the Thunder finally took off and never looked back. They more than doubled their win total and made it into the playoffs, pushing the eventual champs to an unexpectedly tough 6 game series. We applauded our team and cheered them on, but always kept wondering when the other shoe was going to drop on our fairy tale story. At this point we were enjoying our successes, but wondering how fragile they are. 

During that summer between our 2nd and 3rd seasons, we were overjoyed to see Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, two of our players, represent the country in their pre-Olympic tournament in which they were belittled by their own country’s media (“B-team”) and expected not to medal. Instead, led by the two Thunder players, the team took home the gold with nary a blemish on their record. We, as a fan base, puffed out our collective chests and walked around with pride in preparation for the next season. 

Heading into the 3rd season, expectations were high, not only locally, but also nationally. With a big move at the trading deadline, the Thunder did not disappoint making it all the way to the Western Conference finals losing to the eventual NBA champs. Fans were beginning to become accustomed to winning because it is all they had known with this franchise. 

Presently, the team sits tied for the best record in the league at the half-way point in a strike shortened season. We’ve seen Kevin Durant be named All Star game MVP, while Russell Westbrook performed exceedingly well in the same game. But what should be a feeling of joy and accomplishment is sometimes flipped into a feeling of anger and disgust whenever we do actually lose a game. It’s almost like we are expecting to win every game, while at the same time, expecting the clock to strike 12 and for this team to turn back into a big ugly pumpkin with some scurrying mice. 

Are we spoiled? Hell yeah we’re spoiled. Our track record has been nothing but an upward trend. In a league that is cyclical in terms of team success, we’ve been a straight line in the positive direction. But, can you be spoiled, and still be appreciative of what you are watching? That’s what worries me about this fan base. What’s going to happen to it when we hit our first big bump in the road? 

We’re an extremely young fan base that has grown with this team. You can say that we have experienced bumps in the road with the losses in the playoffs. But, expansion teams and rebuilding teams go through years of futility before they finally start to see the fruits of their labor. We haven’t had to go through the years of futility. We had one horrible year and the rest have been magical. My only fear is what happens when making it to the playoffs isn’t magical anymore. 

And don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to be a Debbie-downer (or is it a Dreary-Dougie?). I love and respect our fan base to no end. Many media pundits have called us the best home crowd in the league. And I agree whole-heartedly, as I’m one of the crazies screaming my ass off in the middle of the 2nd quarter. But, in taking in the last 3 ½ seasons, I want something malleable that I can compare it to. They say that history repeats itself, but sometimes it’s scary when you are the one making the history. I don’t know how this story will end and that’s the exciting part about all of this. We are the archetypes when it comes to a franchise that had to move while rebuilding and experienced quick success as soon as it arrived at its new location. With that said, let’s continue on with our magical season. There is still much to be written in this story.