The Future Economics of the Lockout

When the owners first started complaining, we were in the beginning of a recession. You started to hear the whispers from the owners that big changes were needed about 3 seasons ago. And the players actually played along with that and actually stated that, “Yes, in this economy, some concessions would need to be made on their parts.” But, I’m pretty sure, their thinking was that by the time the players and the owners actually had to start negotiating (basically 3 years later) that the economy would have been fixed (or at least recovering) by then.

Fast forward to where we are now, and there are actually rumblings that we are entering an even worser recession. So instead of things improving, economically, they will probably begin to get worse for us fans in terms of disposable income. As an owner, if I see that the same system is being kept in place, and I want to stay competitive and get into or stay in the black, I may have to increase ticket prices. And that’s where this starts to affect me, as a John Q. Public fanatic.

You can talk about smart spending (in terms of a team) all you want. But, if you are completely honest with your self, you’ll know that we (the Thunder) got extremely lucky. Portland and OKC basically had the same formula. Tank for a couple seasons. Trade away horrible contracts for draft picks. Try to get lucky in the draft. We picked KD and Russ. They picked Oden and Roy. A couple knee surgeries later, and we are on the brink of becoming dynastic and Portland is on the brink of becoming one of those middle of the road teams (good enough to lose in the first round, but not bad enough to get a significant draft pick).

My question is, should Portland fans have to pay for the bad luck that has been bestowed on their team. Fans eventually tire of middle of the road teams. Once that happens, then those season ticket numbers start to decrease. Once that happens, an owner may be forced to increase ticket prices to meet his/her bottom line. Remember, this could have been OKC’s fate in some alternate universe.

Are you willing to continue paying (paying more) for a system that is broken? Do you know how much quicker Portland could bounce back, if they could’ve either cut Roy/Oden or restructured their deals? And remember, I’m not asking this because I necessarily want to see Portland become elite. I’m asking this because it could easily happen to OKC. As a small market team, you need to ride the highs for as long as possible and stay out of the middle to the lows for as long as possible. In this current system, a tweak of a knee here or a tweak of a back there, and we may be in the same boat.

Oh, and here’s one more thing about this recession talk. Its affecting the whole world, especially Europe. And that’s where it becomes bad for the players. There’s no other league in the world that can offer what the NBA offers. There are rumors that Kobe is looking to sign in Italy for $6.5 million. Do you know how much Kobe made last season? $25 million. And if you sign in China, you have to stay there for the entire season. So, while the “we can play and get paid overseas” thing sounded like a game-changer for the players, its actually enhancing the owners’ position.

So while I may love the NBA and may miss the game if some of the season is missed, I want a deal that keeps ticket prices as low as possible. I haven’t gotten a raise in 3 years at my job. If, for any reason, the owners were forced to hike up ticket prices in the near future, I’m screwed. If the owners and players were really progressive thinkers, they would sign a deal that tilts in the owners’ favor for the first half of the deal, and then tilts back in favor of the players towards the back end of the deal, with the option to revisit the results in the middle of the deal.

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